Background
Bioclimate envelope models, like the ones illustrated in Figure 1, have been previously developed to predict the potential range of a species over Europe based primarily on climatic variables and the realized niche of the species in North America. Limitations of using bioclimate models in Europe, however, are that the potential range of a species cannot be validated for North American tree species since they are not native to Europe, as well because factors such as competition, pathogens, and diseases present in North America that limit the range of the species are not present in Europe.
The effectiveness of a bioclimate model is of particular importance in countries such as Sweden and Great Britain when considering the potential for North American trees species' that will potentially be used in commercial purposes in the face of climate change.
The effectiveness of a bioclimate model is of particular importance in countries such as Sweden and Great Britain when considering the potential for North American trees species' that will potentially be used in commercial purposes in the face of climate change.
Figure 1: Bioclimate envelope model predicted probability of presence (or habitat suitability) and recorded provenance trial locations. P. Menziesii provenance trials and bioclimate envelope model obtained from Isaac-Renton et al (2014).P. contorta provenance trials and bioclimate model obtained from Herva, M (2015).
Relating to bioclimate envelope models to established provenance trials can give us information on the relative effectiveness of these models. Using growth information compiled for two species -Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and Lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta), we hope to compare the relative growth of each species across Europe, and to evaluate the effectiveness of their respective bioclimate envelope models.
It is anticipated that the relative growth of P. menziesii and P. contorta will correlate with the bioclimate envelope model, with faster growth in areas of high suitability, and slower growth in ares of low suitability - thus validating the effectiveness of the bioclimate envelope models in predicting the locational suitability for each respective species. However, since the bioclimate models previously generated are based on the native North American realized niche of the respective species, any notable trends in the data will be evaluated.
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